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Dec 2nd, 2008 Holiday returns to you and Gold and Economic news.Well, I've been a bit silent because I took it easy this Thanksgiving. I hope you did too and that you had a good time with family and friends. It is no surprise therefore that both Democrats and Republicans offered healthy "huzzahs" to Henry Paulson's latest bazooka: $200 billion to purchase securities backed by auto, student, and credit card loans. It is hoped that with this transference of risk to taxpayers, lending institutions won't be so cautious, and the credit-fueled American economy can thrive anew. This is unalloyed insanity that can only lead to total ruin. And this article gives a good run down on gold's behavior. Gold's Behaviour During A Bubble by Bob Hoye One of the most fascinating aspects of great credit manias is that all six since 1720 have occurred with a senior central bank with the dangerous prerogative of issue. Each bubble was identified by the street as such until our era of asset inflations. Perhaps our financial establishment has been so ignorant of the dynamics of a mania they were unable to make the call in real time. Deleveraging Pushes Up the Dollar by John Browne John offers a clear understanding of why the dollar is performing as it is right now. And finally this article with it's graphs just might scare your pants off: WORSE THAN THE GREAT DEPRESSION by Krassimir Petrov The mainstream media and Wall Street have reached the consensus that the current credit crisis is the worst since the post-war period. George Soros’ statement that ”the world faces the worst finance crisis since WWII” epitomizes the collective wisdom. The crisis is currently the ultimate scapegoat for all the economic evils that currently plague the global financial system and the global economy – from collapsing stock markets of the world to food shortages in third world counties. We are repeatedly assured that the ultimate fault lies with the Credit Crisis itself; if there were no Credit Crisis, all of these terrible things would never have happened in the economy and the financial markets. If these things play out, holding physical gold and silver is one of the best positions to be. Right now ExactPricehas them trading at $781.50 and $9.55. You can use ExactPriceto track in real time for free the current spot price on the big three precious metals. Nov 24th, 2008 Peter Schiff Says More Trouble Coming.Folks I think we are in for some more woes in our finances. The bailout today of CitiGroup and the fact that is looks like the automakers are going to get some nice fresh printed cash soon is going to eventually lead to huge inflation.
As discussed in the accompanying video, Schiff believes the recent dollar rally and commodity price weakness will prove temporary. Most troubling, he says the "economic crisis is only just beginning." Nov 19th, 2008 Hump Day FinancialsOkay. The fact is Wall Street is looking pretty much the same as it did last week. Schizophrenic. Because they are buying gold like crazy! And then here's an editorial on more of the shortage woes in the coin market: GOVERNMENTS CAN'T HANDLE GLOBAL RUN ON GOLD COINS. Here's an two articles that really worry me. The first is on jobless rates and how the numbers looked cooked: THE SHAM-FUL JOBS REPORT NEEDS OBAMA'S ATTENTION. And this one dealing with the next crisis following the subprime crisis: Looming Crisis: Unfunded Pensions Next in Line for a Bailout? Oh and remember the Citi group and JP Morgan crisis? Citigroup and JPMorgan Still at Risk, Says Analyst Add to all this and the terrorist threats against America and President Elect Obama and things are in very uncertain. Nov 13th, 2008 Is gold about to move up in the world?Well, that's a guessing game until it happens frankly. Well, not exactly. Gold in general has a steady uptick over the years in the long term.
Now for some gold news from Peter J. Cooper:
Add to that news the following and interesting entry from Larry Edelson: If you think this weekend’s G-20 meetings in Washington are only about designing short-term fixes to the financial system and regulatory reforms for banks, hedge funds, brokers, mortgage companies and investment banks … think again. Did anyone see the wild swing on the stock market today? I thought it very interesting. I noted too with ExactPrice, that gold and silver also fell during the morning but when the stock market rebounded so did the metals. Tomorrow should prove interesting as we go into the weekend. Will the market level out or will more news swing it? Personally, I'm getting tired of the swings, but I have a feeling they are hear to stay for a while. Maybe a long while. Nov 10th, 2008 Scary Financial Monday News.Okay, I started the day off looking at the futures and things looked good, gold and silver were even up. And actually, ExactPrice shows them trading pretty level since opening. If I had to guess, I'd say that come close of today they will climb over night. “What folks need to understand is that the global OTC derivatives market, measured in tens or hundreds of trillions, is virtually all US Dollar denominated. Its SYSTEMIC failure, which is now occurring, requires US Dollar balances to clear (settle) the trades (bets). This has created the paradoxical global demand for US Dollars, the currency of a country that is fundamentally bankrupt. By rationing credit to hedge funds that were naturally levered and ‘long commodities’ (institutions like JP Morgan routinely took the other sides of their customers commodities bets, ruining institutions like natural gas player Amaranth), and propping up the balance sheets of those who were short commodities [such as] the Banks. The Federal Reserve led cabal of Central Bankers have ENGINEERED the collapse in commodities prices while creating the illusion (of a perverse US Dollar rally). The engineered collapse of the commodities complex became necessary in the eyes of monetary elites because the rush for tangibles and corresponding repudiation of fiat money was becoming manic, as so CLEARLY evidenced by the emerging shortages of precious metals, gold and silver bullion.”
Nov 6th, 2008 DOW Tanking in Election sell off.Well, it's not just the election that is causing the sell off. Jobless rates, company reports, and fear are helping in a large part no doubt. Stocks have fallen 32% in 2008 thus far. Oil is down 26%. Zinc is down 58%. Gold is only down 16%. Gold has done rather well. Here's the link to the full article: GOLD IS STILL WAAAAY CHEAPER THAN STOCKS
And not to be forgotten is silver. MORE SIGNS OF A SILVER SHORTAGE The evidence of a wholesale silver shortage continues to build. This is in addition to the current retail shortage. The continuing tightening in the price differentials between the trading months in COMEX futures has continued and become more dramatic. One of the clearest indicators of a shortage in a physical commodity occurs when the nearby futures months trade at a premium to more deferred trading months. That means buyers are willing to pay more for a commodity because it is not immediately available. Remember, the definition of a commodity shortage revolves around delays and premiums. While the nearby months in COMEX silver futures haven’t yet grown to a premium over the more deferred months (called backwardation or an inverted market), they have moved noticeably in that direction. This article I think bears some serious thought about the global crisis we are looking at. Global Panic Spreads
And you might find this article by James Turk on Warren Buffet of interest: Mr. Buffett's Market Call Well, that's it for now. Currently ExactPriceshows the three big precious metals tracking down from today's highs. Gold's at 732.50, silver 10.06, and platinum 845.80. Nov 3rd, 2008 Monday. Slow News Day before Election Day.Well, Monday is here. Tuesday for some inexplicable reason will soon follow and that means Election Day. A big day coming and everyone right now is holding their breath which translates into a slow news and trading day. Not a bad thing.
Oct 31st, 2008 Spooky End to October?Not likely, today. No I think the spooky end will come on the morning of November 5th. From then on out things are going to get down right interesting. Here's another report on coin shortages: Demand for Gold Coins Creates Shortage Here's some mining news worth looking into: Goldcorp Cash Flow Increases 14% in Third Quarter Third Quarter 2008 Highlights: - Revenues increased 5% to $552.2 million on gold sales of 550,500 ounces. - Cash flow before changes in working capital(2) increased by 14% to $237.3 million. - Total cash costs(3) amounted to $346 per gold ounce for the third quarter and $298 per ounce year-to-date. - Dividends of $32.1 million were paid during the quarter. - The acquisition of Gold Eagle was completed. - Cash and equivalents at September 30, 2008 were $454 million. - Goldcorp remains debt-free. - The Company reaffirms 2008 production and cash cost guidance. Here's two articles not dealing directly with precious metals that are worth reading: Fed’s Out of Control! The Federal Reserve has dug in their heels in the mightiest bought against deflation since the 1930’s. If they fail, we are looking at deflation that would dwarf that seen in the Great Depression. In order to be successful in this fight, Bernanke and company will be forced to use all of their monetary tools, and some that were thought not to exist. The standard monetary tools have included FOMC policy and creation of money and credit. Some of the more historic measures taken include: massive cumulative bailout, money market security blanket, commercial paper assistance, creation of more lending facilities that one can ever imagine, change in discount lending rules, direct stakes in insurers, direct stakes in banks, nationalization of privatized loss, etc. I mean at this point you could go on and one. If it hasn’t come clear to you yet, I don’t know what to say. THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS ON THE PATH TO HYPERINFLATION. You need to prepare yourself financially. Things like social security will be worthless in 10 years. $100 of goods will soon by you what would have been $10 worth. All of these things will weigh on us economically with higher interest rates and double digit unemployment. And finally: What Does Oil Have To Do With The Price Of Bread? A Lot Our eyes have been fixed in horror on the price of oil, the price of gold, the price of the Canadian dollar, the price of bank shares, the price of our house, the price of credit. Fair enough: These are the yardsticks of the economic crisis, the gauges of the world’s health. But we ought to keep our eyes on the price of a loaf of bread. This, too, has been fluctuating wildly: The global price soared this spring to almost double what it was a year before, and then plunged over the summer and autumn by 40 per cent, along with most other food prices – proving, in a way we have never seen before, that food is a global commodity, completely linked to petroleum, metal and other tradable goods. Have a great weekend and a safe night! Oct 29th, 2008 Commodities Today and a Coming Depression?I've not a lot of time today for the Internet as work is poking me hard in the ribs, but here are several articles that I found good reading this morning and wanted to pass on to readers. Going by the charts alone, you might think the “commodity supercycle” is as dead as Monty Python’s famed parrot. But there is more here than meets the eye... Hear ye, hear ye, one and all: The supercycle is dead. Long live the supercycle!I particularly found this article of interest, though admit that it is a bit doomy: AFTERSHOCK AND GOLD ROCKET Welcome to the opening ceremony of a modern depression.... ....Though its hard to imagine in the current price environment, both gold and silver are on the verge of a tremendous breakout to the upside, and if you can’t get your hands on the physical bullion over the next 24 months, the producing companies will be next followed closely by well cashed up junior explorers with million ounce+ deposits in National Instrument 43-101 compliant categories. And finally this article: OUTLOOK ON GOLD: BUYING OPPORTUNITY AND HEDGE AGAINST UNCERTAINTY AHEAD
Until next time. Oh and right now at the posting of this, Gold and Silver are at $764.20 and 9.65 according to ExactPrice. Oct 27th, 2008 VIDEOS: You're Money and Why it's in danger.Okay. Here are two videos you should see. The first is from 60minutes and is titled: The Bet That Blew Up Wall StreetIt deals with making sense of the derivaties in the market and how Congress royally screwed up by allowing something that helped bring on the Great Depression.
This embedded video may really scare you:
Both these videos ingested here are several articles that I hit this morning and think worth considering when it comes to gold. Speaking of which, ExactPrice, has it sitting at $729.40 right now. This first one isn't about precious metals but follows in line with the videos. Thousands of hedge funds to close, says GLG chief Emmanuel Roman "Emmanuel Roman, of GLG Partners, said 25pc-30pc of the world's 8,000 hedge funds would disappear "in a Darwinian process", either going bust or deciding meagre profits are not worth their efforts." Good article on the shortage of precious metals: Shortage of Gold & Silver in precious metals market "An unprecedented shortage of physical metal currently exists in the popular gold and silver bullion markets. Premiums, the amount paid and charged by bullion dealers over the current spot or cash price, are at the highest levels since at least 1980, and possibly the highest ever seen for popular gold and silver bullion coins and bars." Here's two items from SeekingAlpha that you might find interesting: Gold Miners: Amazingly Cheap "No, this recent drop in gold has come almost entirely from downward pressure in the “paper” gold markets — the COMEX and Gold ETF (GLD). And this downward pressure has come from two trends:
"Hedge funds, pension funds, and even mutual funds have been slammed with redemptions in the last year — mutual funds alone have experienced $967 billion in redemptions since the beginning of 2008." "Throughout Greenspan’s inflation bull market (RIP 2003-2007), I was very bearish, fully aware of the impending credit and derivatives disaster that the Maestro claims not to have seen coming. Long time readers know my writing included a comparison of the entire USA to the former poster child for corporate criminal excess, Enron (Amron)." Oct 24th, 2008 October 24, the Day the Market is Supposed to CRASH.Okay, the doom and gloom got started early this morning before the market opened with DOW futures frozen at 550. It didn't open quite that bad but it did turn down and has been trading down for the past two hours around the 300-370 range. Bloomberg - Gold Heads for Biggest Weekly Drop in Over 28 Years on DollarBye-bye (original) bailout Commentary: Treasury is going for equity stakes instead of asset buys Drop in prices sparks gold rush in Abu Dhabi The U.S. Dollar Death Dance US government throws oil on fire My favorite line from this article: "As denial was rendered increasingly untenable by unfolding events, champions of market fundamentalism began clamoring for increasingly larger doses of government intervention in failed free markets around the world to restore sound market fundamentals. For the market fundamentalist faithful, this amounts to asking the devil to save god." Have a great weekend! Until next time. Oct 20th, 2008 The US dollar, silver, and gold. Articles to think about when it comes to our money.Here's some articles I found worth ruminating over today. With the markets in continued turmoil it's hard to know what to invest in. I did find this article worth reading: It looks at things we should be doing with our money has it appears times are going to get lean. Silver Stock Report: The World is Filled with Silver Fraud The second biggest fraud in the silver market is the LBMA London Bullion Market Association. These are a collective of banks who have 75 million ounces of silver, but trade 30 billion ounces of silver per year, according to statistics compiled by the CPM Group. Clearly, there is fraud there, and they admit it at their website, regarding “bullion accounts”: Why Are Investors Returning to the Dollar? So dollars keep coming home and going into Treasuries, making dollars more scarce as a unit of exchange for transactions like buying oil from Saudi Arabia or unwinding a CDS in Sweden. You can pay for your oil in Euros or Yen or Zimbabwean Dollars (well, for a teaspoon or two, anyway) but the price is figured in U.S. Dollars, so a strong dollar hurts everyone not using dollars as their primary mode of exchange. Add to this the fact that financial institutions worldwide now need U.S. Dollars. Why? Because much of the international financial chicanery is dollar-denominated and unraveling faster than a ball of yarn in the paws of a 6-week-old kitten. To pay off dollar obligations, it’s best to have dollars. Is Gold Ready to Fly? Something has got to break open here. If the Interventionists were to keep forcing the gold price lower, the hurting public would pawn their gold, believing the price will never return to its former glitter. But, at some point soon, the debt-free goldminers would stop production, conserve their cash and wait out the ultimate pressures of the Paulson Reflation Program, which will return gold to prices above and beyond anything seen to date. So the system is really screwed up while the CDS problems are sorted out between finance ministers, central bankers and the heads of the major private sector banks. Independent traders are waiting for an outcome. Those who have no debt are in the fortunate position of not having to panic and kowtow to the Golden Rule. I hate to say it, but those of you who are submerged with debt are the ones who are desperate and complaining most today.Leading indicators rise for 1st time in 5 months NEW YORK (AP) -- The economy's health improved for the first time in five months in September as supplier deliveries and new orders strengthened, a private research group said Monday. I did hear from one source that says there is something brewing this week that will drive Wallstreet down. They would elaborate and so it remains a mere rumor. We shall see. Meanwhile, let me note that you can get a free software widget for tracking in real-time the precious metals markets of gold, silver, and platinum: ExactPrice Oct 17th, 2008 Why is Gold Losing it's Shine? Or is it?I've got to tell you, when I launched the widge ExactPrice this morning and saw the fall that gold and even silver were taking I was surprised. For one, I knew that the stock markets were forecasted for a big fall at open, which typically means a rise in gold. For another, the idea of all this inflationary spending should be driving the price up as the dollar goes down. Silver Bear Market = Opportunity Why Are Gold Prices Falling? Hint: It’s NOT Because Of the Dollar Why is the gold price falling when it should be going up? Oct 14th, 2008 Are our wallets about to be picked by the governments by coming inflation?The Federal Reserve, administration, and Congress are all working their magic and printing out more and more cash and buying stakes in banks across this "Free" land. It's worth the ten minutes it'll take for you to listen to it. Here's another link to an article that should scare everyone given the way our government is operating: Iceland is all but officially bankrupt Driven to that end by excessive debt. Sound familiar? Also interesting to me as I follow gold and silver with ExactPriceis this artilce: Blatant Banker Manipulation Of Gold Prices "Numerous fund managers and top investors like Jim Rogers are now predicting that global central banks’ insistence on printing their way out of economic turmoil is setting the stage for a hyperinflationary holocaust, a knock-on effect of which will be gold’s acceleration towards $2,000. "But as many have pointed out, gold price manipulation is rife as central banks desperately attempt to stem the flight from paper currencies into gold, a process that anecdotal evidence strongly suggests is happening across Europe at an alarming pace." Well, that's it for me today. I'm not buying the current DOW love fest because I really don't think we've hit bottom yet. Oct 13th, 2008 Gold at the Start of the Market Bounce Week.Mercy! Last week was a ride. Friday saw 1,000 point swing in the DOW and it looked like the sky was falling, and I'm not talking rain. The interest in gold coins is so great that many of the world's major mints are struggling to keep up with demand, including the Austrian Mint, which produces the Vienna Philharmonic - one of the best-selling bullion coins worldwide. Sales of Vienna Philharmonic gold coins have gone up by more than 230% since last year. All Eyes on the U.S. Dollar It is true that some of the positive movement to the US Dollar is part of a mass flight from central bank rate inevitability in the yen crosses. But dollar strength is not just the byproduct of the collapse of the carry trade. It is also a vote for the supremacy of the greenback and the US economy. The currency markets are telling the economic and financial world where the recovery will take first and strongest root. This conclusion, perhaps unbelievable in the face of the current economic catastrophe, is supported by the current level of the US Dollar against its major competitors. Capital Gold Announces Record Gold Production at Its El Chanate Mine Capital Gold announced today that the Company produced 4,350 ounces of gold in September at its El Chanate mine in Sonora, Mexico, bringing the combined production for August and September to a record two month total of 9,100 ounces, over 1,000 ounces more than any previous two months. Meanwhile cash costs for our first fiscal year (excluding royalties) were kept to $224 an ounce -- well below industry average of over $400, contributing considerably to the Company's bottom line. And I thought this blog entry cool because it features some pics from the latest Mining Expo in Vegas. Our lust for metal is great.
Until next time. Be sure to check out the free real time market price widget ExactPricefor gold, silver, and platinum. Oct 8th, 2008 Everyone on the street worried over economy.I spent most of today away from the computer and the market news. I was even away from the tv or radio news. But what I did have the opportunity to do was interact with people on "main street" and over all there is worry about the financial crisis and what it means in the long run. Financial panics have been around at least as long as organized economies. The first recorded panic in modern economies was in 1819. At its heart was a failure of the banking system following the War of 1812. It was preceded by a change in monetary policy caused by heavy borrowings to finance the war, and the monetary expansion in turn spurred an expansion of banks and bank notes. The resulting speculative investment led inevitably to collapse, with bank failures, bank runs and bankruptcies.... Check it out. The article features some charts looking at past financial crashes and causes. I got a kick out of this blog post: How to Ruin the U.S. Economy by Ben Stein 1) Have a fiscal policy that creates immense deficits in good times and bad, burdening America's posterity with staggering burdens of repaying the debt. Oh and get this: Mint Widens Freeze on Gold Coin Sales People are reacting to the market and fear is building on the street. And here's one evidence: More People Buying Safes Well, tomorrow is a new day and perhaps it will be laced with opportunity. I'm sure it will. We just need to keep our eyes open. Oct 6th, 2008 The Credit Crash around the globe.This is turning out to be a very interesting day. Then there's this: EXCLUSIVE-Gold Fields CEO sees global gold supply tighter "Global gold supply will likely contract as the financial crisis in the United States saps funds away from planned mining projects, Nick Holland, the chief executive of Gold Fields said on Friday." If this info turns out to come to fruition then that should mean we will be seeing a rise in the price of gold because the supply is going to get real tight. I was watching the price of gold with the real time free widget ExactPrice today and it was rocketing up at first as the markets crashed but but it came down some and is trading at $858.50 right now. Tomorrow is going to be interesting on the markets I think as this credit crunch continues to dominoe around the globe. I think we are going to have to tighten our belts quite a bit in the coming year. Oct 3rd, 2008 Weekend is here. Congress is voting on Bailout holding their noses.I'm going to jet out of here early for the weekend as I see nothing really happening with the passing of the House bill sure to happen today. But I'm leaving frustrated with our Congressman and women. |